Firing Squad (1 of 4): Causal Bayesian Network

"Suppose that a prisoner is about to be executed by a firing squad. A certain chain of events must occur for this to happen. First, the court orders the execution. The order goes to a captain, who signals the soldiers on the firing squad (A and B) to fire. We’ll assume that they are obedient and expert marksmen, so they only fire on command, and if either one of them shoots, the prisoner dies."

Pearl, Judea. The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect (p. 40). Basic Books. Kindle Edition. 

I implemented Pearl's Firing Squad problem as a causal Bayesian network in BayesiaLab. "Causal" means that the arc directions represent causal relationships between the nodes. You can download the attached XBL file and open it with any version of BayesiaLab. 

Alternatively, you can experiment with the Firing Squad model on this WebSimulator page: https://simulator.bayesialab.com/#!simulator/211001563973

Continue to part 2 of this example

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