Where is My Bag? (1 of 2): Probability Tables - The Fuel of Bayesian Networks
Pearl, Judea. The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect (pp. 116-118). Basic Books. Kindle Edition.
You can find the full description of this example in Chapter 4 of our book "Bayesian Network & BayesiaLab."
The attached XBL file corresponds to the Causal Bayesian Network describing this problem. Below is the conditional probability table associated with Bag on Carousel:
You can experiment with this model via our WebSimulator: https://simulator.bayesialab.com/#!simulator/470237376209